Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein

Ruminant meat provides valuable protein to humans, but livestock production has many negative environmental impacts, especially in terms of deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, water use and eutrophication. In addition to a dietary shift towards plant-based diets, imitation products, including plant-based meat, cultured meat and fermentation-derived microbial protein ([MP]{.caps}), have been proposed as means to reduce the externalities of livestock production. Life cycle assessment ([LCA]{.caps}) studies have estimated substantial environmental benefits of [MP]{.caps}, produced in bioreactors using sugar as feedstock, especially compared to ruminant meat. Here we present an analysis of [MP]{.caps} as substitute for ruminant meat in forward-looking global land-use scenarios towards 2050. Our study complements [LCA]{.caps} studies by estimating the environmental benefits of [MP]{.caps} within a future socio-economic pathway. Our model projections show that substituting 20% of per-capita ruminant meat consumption with [MP]{.caps} globally by 2050 (on a protein basis) offsets future increases in global pasture area, cutting annual deforestation and related [CO2]{.caps} emissions roughly in half, while also lowering methane emissions. However, further upscaling of [MP]{.caps}, under the assumption of given consumer acceptance, results in a non-linear saturation effect on reduced deforestation and related [CO2]{.caps} emissions---an effect that cannot be captured with the method of static [LCA]{.caps}.